Gartner: Fewer Than 20 Companies Will Deploy Humanoids at Scale by 2028 | Taha Abbasi

Taha Abbasi analyzes Gartner’s sobering prediction for the humanoid robot industry—and why polyfunctional robots may win the warehouse instead.

Despite billions in investment and constant media attention, Gartner predicts that fewer than 20 companies will deploy humanoid robots in production for supply chain and manufacturing use cases by 2028. Of the nearly 200 humanoid robot developers that exist today, fewer than 100 will progress their proofs of concept beyond experimentation.

For those of us following the robotics revolution, this forecast is a reality check worth examining closely.

The Hype vs. Reality Gap

Taha Abbasi has observed the pattern before: revolutionary technology attracts massive investment and media attention before the hard work of deployment begins. Humanoid robots—with their anthropomorphic appeal and sci-fi resonance—are particularly susceptible to this dynamic.

“The promise of humanoid robots is compelling, but the reality is that the technology remains immature and far from meeting expectations for versatility and cost-effectiveness,” said Abdil Tunca, senior principal analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice.

The key barriers identified by Gartner:

• Technological limitations: Current models lack the dexterity, intelligence, and adaptability required for complex, unstructured environments
• Integration complexity: Compatibility with existing systems and workflows remains challenging
• High costs: Humanoids cost multiple times more than task-specific robots while delivering lower throughput and uptime
• Energy constraints: Limited battery life restricts operational time for high-mobility tasks

The Case Against Human Form

Here’s the counterintuitive insight from Gartner: the human form may not be optimal for most warehouse and manufacturing tasks. Taha Abbasi notes that while humanoid robots are designed to work in spaces built for humans, that doesn’t mean they’re the best solution.

Consider a humanoid trying to pick items from a shelf:

• It needs to balance on two legs while reaching
• Its human-like arms have limited reach compared to telescopic alternatives
• Walking consumes significant battery power
• Falls are catastrophic for both the robot and nearby workers

A wheeled mobile manipulator with a telescopic arm faces none of these challenges while accomplishing the same task.

The Polyfunctional Alternative

Gartner predicts that “polyfunctional robots”—systems optimized for flexibility without being constrained by human-like design—will be the superior solution for most companies.

Examples include mobile manipulators with wheels and extensible arms that can move boxes, pick cases, scan inventory, and perform inspections. These systems typically achieve higher uptime and use less energy than humanoids attempting the same tasks.

“For the majority of companies that will need to prioritize robots that maximize throughput-per-dollar invested, we expect polyfunctional robots to be the superior solution,” said Caleb Thomson, senior director analyst at Gartner.

Who Should Pursue Humanoids?

Taha Abbasi extracts Gartner’s advice for companies considering humanoid investments:

Good candidates for humanoid robots:

• High risk appetite and focus on innovation
• Willingness to accept unproven ROI
• Resources for pilot programs and iteration
• Use cases that genuinely require human-like form

Most companies should instead:

• Pursue pilot programs to validate feasibility before full-scale deployment
• Prioritize outcome-driven automation targeting specific bottlenecks
• Consider polyfunctional robots for maximum throughput-per-dollar
• Implement continuous monitoring to track performance

The Long View

This doesn’t mean humanoid robots won’t eventually succeed—it means the timeline is longer than current hype suggests. Tesla, Figure AI, Boston Dynamics, Apptronik, and others are all making real progress. But as Taha Abbasi often notes, the gap between a compelling demo and reliable industrial deployment is where most robotics companies struggle.

For supply chain leaders and investors, the message is clear: humanoids are a long-term bet, not a near-term solution. The companies that will win in the next three years are likely building polyfunctional robots that prioritize reliability and ROI over anthropomorphic appeal.

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