Waymo Under NHTSA Investigation: What the Santa Monica Incident Reveals About Robotaxi Safety | Taha Abbasi

Taha Abbasi examines the NHTSA investigation into Waymo after an autonomous vehicle struck a child near an elementary school—and what it means for the broader robotaxi industry.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has opened an investigation into Waymo following an incident last week in Santa Monica, California. A Waymo autonomous vehicle struck a child who ran into the street from behind a double-parked SUV near an elementary school during drop-off hours. The child sustained minor injuries.

For those of us tracking autonomous vehicle development, this incident raises important questions about how AVs handle the most unpredictable scenarios—and whether current technology is ready for school zones.

What Happened

According to NHTSA documents, on January 23, 2026, a child emerged from behind a parked SUV and ran across the street toward an elementary school. A Waymo robotaxi struck the child, though Waymo claims its vehicle braked hard upon detection—reducing speed from approximately 17 mph to under 6 mph before contact.

Taha Abbasi notes several critical context factors:

• The incident occurred during normal school drop-off hours
• Multiple children, a crossing guard, and several double-parked vehicles were present
• The child was obscured behind a parked SUV until emerging into traffic

Waymo stated that the child stood up immediately after contact and walked to the sidewalk. The company called 911 and voluntarily contacted NHTSA the same day.

The School Zone Problem

This isn’t Waymo’s first safety issue near schools. In December, Waymo announced a voluntary software recall after multiple incidents of robotaxis illegally passing stopped school buses across different states.

The Austin Independent School District documented 19 instances of Waymo vehicles “illegally and dangerously” passing school buses during the 2025-2026 school year. The district requested that Waymo cease operations during school bus loading/unloading times.

For Taha Abbasi, this pattern suggests a broader challenge: school zones combine multiple elements that are difficult for current AV systems:

• Unpredictable pedestrian behavior (children)
• Variable traffic patterns (double-parking, buses)
• Time-sensitive context (school hours vs. normal operation)
• High consequences for any error

Waymo’s Defense

Waymo published a peer-reviewed study claiming that a fully attentive human driver would have made contact with the pedestrian at approximately 14 mph—higher than the 6 mph the robotaxi achieved. The implication: the AV performed better than a human would have.

However, as Taha Abbasi observes, this comparison has limitations. A human driver familiar with school zones might have been driving more slowly in the first place, or avoided the area during drop-off hours. The “attentive human driver” baseline doesn’t account for contextual awareness that influences human driving behavior.

The Investigation Scope

NHTSA’s Office of Defects Investigation will examine whether Waymo’s automated driving system “exercised appropriate caution given its proximity to the elementary school during drop-off hours.” Specifically, they’ll investigate:

• ADS behavior in school zones and neighboring areas
• Adherence to posted speed limits during school hours
• Post-impact response procedures

Scale and Stakes

Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 100 million miles and completed over 10 million paid rides. The company operates in Atlanta, Austin, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco, with planned expansions to Nashville, Las Vegas, San Diego, Detroit, Washington D.C., and more than a dozen other cities.

Each incident receives intense scrutiny because AVs are held to a higher standard than human drivers—rightly so, since autonomous systems can be updated fleet-wide once problems are identified. The question is whether Waymo’s system improvements can stay ahead of the increasing complexity of their operating domains.

The Broader Implications

For the autonomy industry, this investigation matters beyond Waymo. Regulatory response to high-profile incidents shapes the operating environment for all AV companies. Overly restrictive regulations could slow beneficial deployment; insufficient oversight could lead to preventable harm.

Taha Abbasi suggests the key question isn’t whether AVs will have incidents—they will—but whether they’re systematically safer than human drivers and whether companies respond appropriately to identified problems. Waymo’s voluntary recalls and cooperation with NHTSA suggest they’re taking the right approach, but the pattern of school-zone issues demands a more fundamental solution.

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